Policing Insight: Understanding and Countering the Cartels’ Expansion to Europe

This article first appeared on www.policinginsight.com.

At Interpol's 50th European Regional Conference in May 2024, the world's largest police organisation noted that countries in Europe are witnessing historic levels of drug trafficking, as well as increasing levels of violence by organised crime groups all over Europe.

"We continue to see record [narcotics] seizures at European borders and ports, and a corresponding rise in violent crime … of unprecedented scale," said Jürgen Stock, Interpol's Secretary General. The type of violence he referred to is common in South America, where cartel violence is legendary, but has to date been unfamiliar in Europe.

From torture chambers discovered in the port of Rotterdam to gangs in Marseille that arm adolescents with Kalashnikovs, the fact of extreme violence from organised crime groups is becoming "part of the daily reality in the European Union", according to Alexis Goosdeel, director of the European Monitoring Centre for Drugs and Drug Addiction (EMCDDA).

The narcotics market in Europe is primarily divided between cannabis (39%), cocaine (37%), heroin (17%), amphetamines (5%) and MDMA (2%). The total market is valued at about €31 billion. It is, therefore, not surprising that there is so much competition, now spurred on by the South American cartels who want a piece of the action.

For Mexican cartels, Europe is a market ripe for exploitation. From a commercial perspective, the cartels want to expand their businesses and revenue, and Europe is seen as an attractive market that has not been fully exploited. They also want to increase their regional influence but lack the networks and infrastructure required. The local crime groups have manufacturing and distribution operations throughout the region, developed over many years, which makes them good partners for the cartels to quickly establish themselves without massive investments.

Joint ventures are a win-win for all parties. They provide the cartels with existing infrastructure to distribute their products and reduce the risks involved in narcotics smuggling by capitalising on local manufacturing capabilities. Moreover, doing it all in Europe significantly mitigates the risk of losing millions when authorities intercept shipments from South America.

Why risk capture when you can manufacture?

Narcotics from South America have been entering Europe for years in steadily increasing quantities. The traditional method of transporting the finished product and smuggling it past port authorities has generally been successful, but there were always losses due to tip-offs or law enforcement intelligence. For example, in 2023, Spain reported its largest seizure to date, comprising 9.5 tonnes of cocaine in a single shipment.

The cartels and their local crime partners do not like losing money. What better way to avoid conflicts with authorities and reduce production and transportation costs than to manufacture narcotics inside the borders of the European Union (EU)?

With a manufacturing base set up in Europe, the cartels have access to a range of companies producing the required precursor chemicals and existing illegal narcotics manufacturing facilities. The result will be easier and faster access to precursors to produce the final products and immediate access to transportation and distribution networks and customers.

Another benefit is that the cartels can access chemical production companies licenced to legally produce precursor chemicals in Europe, some in Germany and the Netherlands. These are not obscure companies operating in the jungles of Peru, but legitimate companies producing chemicals legally and exporting them globally. The fact that many chemicals have a dual purpose, one legitimate and one as precursor chemicals for opioids, plays into cartel hands.

Moreover, the EU's itself an attraction for narcotics smugglers. While ports and airports have strict regulations and law enforcement checks for narcotics smuggling, the road network across the EU is an enviable feat of engineering, including internal rail connections, with delays or diversions caused by law enforcement a rare occurrence. So, producing narcotics within the EU means a much lower likelihood of disruption from law enforcement and almost guaranteed delivery anywhere within the borders. Exporting from European ports, instead of Colombia or Mexico, will also make sending products to another country easier.

A missing narcotic

Europe is not alone in its battle against illicit narcotics. However, it does have one advantage over America and Canada in that fentanyl is not flooding the market. While 74,702 Americans died from fentanyl-related overdoses in 2023, out of a total of 107,543 drug overdoses in the country, only 163 deaths were linked to fentanyl and its derivatives in Europe.

The reason for this is that contrary to the lack of reaction from America's government, Europe's reaction to suddenly experiencing thousands of fentanyl overdoses in a year would be an uncompromising pushback against narcotics crime groups. European law enforcement agencies would waste little time in implementing aggressive counter-narcotic strategies. The agencies would not only act in their own countries, but cartels would face an aggressive, EU-wide coordinated task force dedicated to stopping them.

Interpol’s Operation Lionfish Hurricane in April and May 2024 is an example of the reaction they could expect. This operation attacked narcotics networks in 31 countries in South America, Africa and Europe. Some of the results include 206 arrests, the seizure of 505 tonnes of precursor chemicals, 56 tonnes of cocaine and 52 tonnes of other drugs. The cartels understand that the actions of European law enforcement would be far more aggressive and intense than they faced in America.

However, traditional narcotics are enough of a challenge for Europe. To prevent the escalation of addiction, violence and the resulting societal impact, EU authorities need to take urgent action to address the threat, disrupt the drug trade and send a clear message that they will not tolerate this escalation.

Focused, coordinated efforts based on data

What options do European law enforcement agencies have to thwart the cartel’s expansion plan? Despite possessing skilled and dedicated counter-narcotics professionals, the EU should consider implementing three crucial suggestions.

First, the EU can degrade narcotics production by doing what it is good at: enforcing good corporate governance and compliance. As noted, precursor chemicals are easy to find in Europe and moving them from one location to another in the narcotics supply chain is safe, simple, and, in most cases, legal. Legislation to control the production and sale of some precursors has already been implemented in the EU, but it needs updating, with more aggressive enforcement and harsher penalties.

The regulations should require manufacturers to appoint a person to oversee the production of these chemicals and compile comprehensive reports. If this is not done, the company could lose its licence to manufacture the restricted substances.

EU authorities must expand the list of controlled precursors. Increasing the governance and compliance requirements for companies manufacturing chemicals will initially impose additional costs and responsibilities on the organisations. However, like implementing GDPR and other compliance regulations, it will soon become a standard part of doing business.

Second, a high-tech approach could also be added where governance regulations require companies to add a marker to the chemicals they produce that uniquely identifies them without affecting their utility or causing harm. This requires significant technical expertise, but it is possible.

Finally, at a counter narcotics agency level there should be a move to improve data collection and analysis by law enforcement when they act against drug labs. European authorities collect samples when raiding illicit laboratories, but their primary goal is dismantling the equipment and ensuring the environment is safe.

Presumptive analysis technologies, such as Raman spectroscopy, safely identify narcotics and precursor chemicals at the crime scene in seconds is crucial. If necessary, the results can later be verified in government laboratories. Combining the analysis of chemicals will provide data for a narcotics database, including the various precursor chemicals used.

By using artificial intelligence, law enforcement can analyse data collected across the continent, discover the chemicals' origins, determine who the suppliers are, and even map routes to market. Most importantly, precursor suppliers will have no way to deny they supplied the chemicals, ensuring companies implement the required compliance processes.

A controlled problem waiting to explode

The most reliable data indicates that Europe's drug overdose mortality rate is about 7000 people per annum. This may seem inconsequential compared to America; however, these figures can change quickly, especially with cartel involvement in the region.

The EU, from a legislative and proactive counter narcotics policing perspective, can prevent any dramatic rise in the number of overdoses and deal effectively with growing violence resulting from the drug trade without adopting aggressive, military-style tactics. Not only can it prevent an escalation, but it can reduce the current statistics and degrade the ability of organised crime groups and their cartel partners to produce illicit drugs in Europe.

The solution requires the political will to take a firm stance, increased cooperation between the various law enforcement agencies, and the application of technology to quickly and accurately identify narcotics and precursors. With markers and distribution routes in hand, organisations involved in illegitimate precursor chemical transactions can be identified and sanctioned. Most importantly, trafficking routes will be dismantled, and crime groups, including their cartel partners, will be significantly degraded.

This approach will prevent the escalation of violence, reduce the public healthcare costs of addiction, reduce public pressure placed on police and government, and reinforce the view of Europe as a peaceful, advanced society. One only has to look at South America's predicament at the hands of the cartels to see a worst-case scenario if the situation is allowed to escalate.

Views expressed in this article are opinions of the interviewee, and do not necessarily reflect the views of Rigaku Analytical Devices.

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